Wednesday, May 10, 2017

Last Call For Houston, We Have A Model

If you want to know what America in 30 years will look like according to demographic projections, take a look at the most diverse major metro area in the country today in Houston.

Houston boomed through the mid-20th century, thanks to the oil bonanza, and most of those who came to get rich were white. Large numbers of Vietnamese refugees began arriving in the 1970s, and after an oil collapse in 1982, they were followed by an influx of Latinos driven by cheap housing and employment opportunities. Whites, meanwhile, started drifting out. 
The multi-ethnic boom has occurred deep in the heart of a state that has often seemed to regard conservatism, and Texas identity, as an element of religion. 
The state’s Republican leadership has helped lead the fight this year not only on sanctuary cities, but to defend President Trump’s order on border security and immigration enforcement. Texas went to court in 2015 to successfully block expanded deportation protections for young “Dreamers” and their parents who brought them here illegally. 
Yet demographic experts say the Houston metro area, home to the third-largest population of undocumented immigrants in the country — behind New York and Los Angeles — is a roadmap to what U.S. cities will look like in the coming decades as whites learn to live as minorities in the American heartland. 
Census projections have opened a window into the America of 2050, “and it’s Houston today,” said Stephen Klineberg, a sociology professor at Rice University. 
“This biracial Southern city dominated by white men throughout all of its history has become, by many measures, the single most ethnically diverse major metropolitan area in the country,” Klineberg said. “Who knew Houston would turn out to be at the forefront of what’s happening across all of America?”

Ahh, but the political fight to shape 2050 is happening in 2017 and 2018, in states with far less diversity that are doing everything they can to keep it that way.  History teaches us that while the moral arc of history bends towards justice, it only does so slowly and it takes tremendous pressure to force that bending at all.  And like in 2016, sometimes that arc gets bent violently in the other direction by reactionary forces, erasing a lot of hard work.

It's taken centuries, but America does move on.  Eventually. Kicking and screaming.  Also, occasionally a war or two is necessary.

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