Friday, August 5, 2016

The Coming Av-Hill-Lanche

And if you see his election in the snow-colored hicks
Well her landslide will bring it down
Yes her landslide will bring it down

With all apologies to Fleetwood Mac, it's looking like the Trump campaign's collapse into flaming slag over the last two weeks may have dealt a mortal blow to his chances to become president.  Sure, there's three months left in the election, but we're at the point now where the polls are solidly starting to show a Clinton victory, and in some cases a Clinton blowout.

The best polling news for Donald Trump on Thursday was that an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll had him down only nine points to Hillary Clinton. 
That survey was released a little while after a poll from McClatchy/Marist that showed Trump down 15 points, pulling only 33 percent of the vote. Those numbers are, to put it bluntly, shocking. Mitt Romney was never down by that much to President Obama in 2012; his worst poll was a survey in June from Bloomberg that had him down 13, with 40 percent of the vote. 
In only one of the four major polls released this week is Trump over 40 percent, which is itself remarkable. Each of the four had Clinton gaining ground since the last time the same outlet released a poll, by an average of about five points. Three of the four showed Trump losing ground, by a little more than three points. 
The two new polls show a pattern that's consistent with other recent surveys, including at the state level. Clinton is getting more support from Democrats than Trump is from Republicans, and his advantage among men and white voters has diminished. In both of the new polls, Clinton leads with men, which has not been the trend over the course of this election.

Oh, but as we start looking at the state polls things are getting even worse for The Donald.

Democrat Hillary Clinton has built a slim lead over Donald Trump in Georgia after one of the worst weeks of the Republican’s campaign, according to a new Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll. 
The poll released Friday shows Clinton at 44 percent and Trump at 40 percent, within the poll’s margin of error. It is the latest showing a close race between the two candidates in Georgia, a state that has voted for the GOP nominee since 1996. 
Clinton maintains a lead when third-party candidates are included. In a four-way race, Clinton led Trump 41-38, but Libertarian Gary Johnson cracked double-digits, with 11 percent of the support, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein notched 2 percent. 
The findings come after both conventions ended and a particularly rough patch for Trump, who engaged in a war of words with the family of a slain Muslim U.S. soldier and infuriated many Republicans when he refused to endorse two of the party’s top elected officials. 
Friday’s survey marks a change from the last AJC poll, commissioned in May, which gave Trump a 45-41 lead over Clinton. It also shows the former secretary of state besting Trump among independents, an influential Georgia voting bloc that typically votes Republican.

If things have gotten so bad for Trump that states like Georgia are moving into purple swing state status, joining North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado and Nevada, then he's done, folks.

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