The Poll Position

And the first batch of polls since Rick Santorum dropped out and left Mitt Romney as the presumptive GOP nominee are out.  CNN has Obama up by 9, but Gallup has Romney up by 2 among registered voters.  The real killer is ABC/WaPo's poll on likeability, with Obama ahead of Romney by a staggering twenty-one points.

Thirty-five percent of Americans see Romney favorably, while 47 percent have an unfavorable opinion of the former Massachusetts governor. He's the first likely nominee to be underwater -- seen more unfavorably than favorably -- in ABC/Post polls in eight presidential primary seasons over the past 28 years. 

Romney's gender gap in vote preferences in an ABC/Post poll last week -- he trailed Obama by 19 percentage points among women -- is reflected in his new favorability scores as well. Just 27 percent of women see Romney favorably, compared with 44 percent of men -- his lowest rating to date among women, and highest among men, in a dozen ABC/Post polls since September.

Obama, by contrast, has no such gap between the sexes; he's seen favorably by 56 percent of Americans overall, including 58 percent of women and 53 percent of men, surpassing Romney in both groups.

Romney also has an enthusiasm gap: Just 12 percent see him "strongly" favorably, about half as many as see him strongly unfavorably. Intensity of sentiment on Obama is more even, tipping slightly to the positive -- 30 percent strongly favorable, 26 percent strongly unfavorable.  

Romney at negative 12 where Obama is plus 14 is pretty awful.  The real killer is Romney is at a mind-numbering negative 25 points among women (27%-52%).  Women despise the guy.  And a gender gap that big seriously makes me question Gallup's polling.  Gallup also shows Romney slightly ahead in the enthusiasm gap, 80% to 76% over the President, with voters for each respective candidate saying they will definitely vote in November.  That's hogwash compared to pretty much every other poll out there.

Nobody believes that.  Not for a second.  There's no way Romney has a gender gap issue that horrific and still is ahead in the polls.  We'll see how that continues to play out, but right now I'm very leery of any poll showing Romney ahead (and Gallup almost never shows their crosstabs like everyone else does either).

If this is the starting point of poll season, Romney's in a deep hole.