The idea that the former governor of liberal Massachusetts may not win the primary in a state where conservative evangelical Christians make up about 60 percent of Republican voters isn't that surprising.
But Romney's path to a neck-and-neck finish with former House of Representatives Speaker Newt Gingrich has begun to look like a lost opportunity, defined by Romney's reluctance to reveal more about his vast wealth and his repeated inability to explain why.
The former private equity executive's discomfort in discussing such personal matters was again evident in Thursday night's debate in Charleston.
When asked whether he would release 12 years of tax returns as his father, George, had done while running for president in 1968, Romney said through a thin smile, "Maybe."
The answer drew a few catcalls from the conservative audience, and contrasted sharply with how Gingrich deftly turned a question about cheating on his second wife into an attack on the media that drew a standing ovation.
It may have been the defining moment of the campaign in South Carolina, the third contest in the state-by-state race to determine who will face Democratic President Barack Obama in the November 6 elections.
Two weeks ago, Romney had a 20 point plus lead in SC and he was buoyed by a win in Iowa and an inevitable pending win in New Hampshire. Today, he's no longer the winner in Iowa, New Hampshire failed to put anyone but Perry out of the race, and he got ripped a new one time and time again. I said then that a SC win would make him the nominee.
Now? Not sure he'll win. And as a supporter of President Obama, I want this race to go as long as it can, with Romney having to spend millions to fight against Gingrich, Paul and Santorum rather than Obama. If Santorum bails and backs Gingrich, and Gingrich wins South Carolina, it's going to be the fabled GOP internal catfight that Democrats have been wishing for since Goldwater.
Time for some Carolina barbecue.
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