Hotel New Hampshire: Winners And Losers

So Mitt Romney got his 40%, which is about the bare minimum he needed to have a "good" night in New Hampshire's primary.    Ron Paul came in second with 23% of the vote, an admittedly strong showing.  Jon Huntsman got 17% of the vote...not what he was looking for.  Gingrich edged out Santorum, 10% to 9%, with Perry accounting for the remaining 1%.

Three things stand out here.  First, the real story of the night is like Iowa, the GOP turnout in New Hampshire was less than in 2008, although not by much.  If the Tea Party in 2010 represents a major enthusiasm boost for the GOP, why are they still putting up 2008 numbers?  Half the voters in the primary were independents, not Republicans.

Second, Mitt Romney's victory speech was loaded with attacks on President Obama and accusing him of the "politics of envy".  He's clearly not worried about the rest of the GOP field anymore.  But his general election style appears to no longer be the moderate, but a full-blown Tea Party Republican.  The exit polls shows his tack to the right did not hurt him among independent voters in the state.  They still think he's a moderate, even though he's come out to the far right on many social positions.  And the exit polls showed the wealthier you were, the more likely you voted for Mitt in New Hampshire.

Third,  nobody's dropping out yet.  They all know that it's South Carolina or bust now.  Santorum has a chance, but all the polls have Romney with a 10 point lead or so on average.  A Romney win here puts it all but away.

Romney's got the money and the support.  The rest of the GOP will fall in line behind him...but he's still trailing President Obama in the polls.  The question at this point is will there be a third party challenge?  If it's from Ron Paul, things could get very interesting.