Monday, July 11, 2011

No Dealing On The Debt Ceiling, Part 32

Republican recalcitrance on the debt ceiling has gotten to the point where Steve M. is now saying he doesn't believe a deal will happen.

Sorry, I don't buy this for a second. It's McConnell's job to go on TV and do as convincing an imitation as he can of a reasonable man. More to the point, it's his job to spin any failure to reach an agreement as 100% the Democrats' fault. Elsewhere in the clip posted by Mediaite, he says:

Obviously, the other side, the other political side, controls most of the government. They have the Senate. They have the presidency. You can't get an accomplishment without some kind of bipartisan agreement, and that's part of what the meeting tonight is about, and we hope it'll be successful.

Translation: Who, us? Responsible for anything that goes wrong?

A month ago I would have completely disagreed with him, but he has a valid point.  If the plan was to make 90% of America eat an austerity crap sandwich, we would of had a deal by now.  Instead, I think the GOP has gotten to the point where any deal is unacceptable.  The reaction by the right to Boehner pulling out puts him in an untenable position.

The Powers That Be on Wall Street want a deal.  The Tea Party will eliminate him if there is one.  The Corporate Wing and the Tea Party Wing are at each other's throats, and the Tea Party Wing is winning.  Obama called their bluff again today and dared them to make a deal.

But if we really do get to the point where Treasury then has to take funding from the Departments of Education, Homeland Security, Health and Human Services, Housing and Urban Development, etc to pay SS and Medicare and hundreds of thousands of federal employees get furloughed, well that appears to be a battle the Republicans now seem willing to have.

A terrifying thought, but one that may define the GOP for a long, long time.  I've been convinced for months now that Wall Street would win this battle.  Now I'm thinking that it's very possible that Wall Street will simply bet on a complete economic collapse and let the Tea Party finish the job they started in 2007.  Matt Osborne notes the consequences of that:

Christine Lagarde, the first woman to head the lending institution, said in an interview broadcast Sunday that it would cause interest rates to rise and stock markets to fall. That would threaten an important IMF goal, which is preserving stability in the world economy, she said.
[...]
“If you draw out the entire scenario of default, yes, of course, you have all of that — interest hikes, stock markets taking a huge hit and real nasty consequences, not just for the United States, but for the entire global economy, because the U.S. is such a big player and matters so much for other countries,” she said.

This is what the Tea Party is risking, not just our economy but the world as well, in their quest for political power.  And it's looking more and more like they are willing to force it in order to try to destroy the country in order to "win".  Greg Sargent:

In another sign of the right’s total intransigence on revenues of any kind, the Club for Growth is going up with a new national ad putting Republicans on notice: Hold firm against any tax hikes, or else

As I've said before, the dealbreaker for the Democrats is no revenue increases and SS/Medicare cuts.  The dealbreaker for the GOP is a brokering a deal at all.   They don't want one.  They are confident they win without one, so they won't lift a finger to stop the economy from going under.  They'll merely blame Obama. Best part? If a deal doesn't happen?  Well, there's already well-known progressives willing to blame the Democrats too.

Time to start being concerned about this, I think.  George Zornick over at The Nation does have this to add:

Many of the large financial institutions that gave money to Cantor have specifically said the debt ceiling must be raised. Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JPMorgan Chase, said “[i]f anyone wants to push that button ... I think they're crazy.” JP Morgan Chase is among the top-20 contributors to Cantor’s campaign committee and leadership PAC, kicking in $27,800 in the last cycle alone between the company PAC and employee contributions.

An even bigger financial backer for Cantor is KKR & Co., a major private equity firm who's employees gave Cantor $52,600 during the last cycle, making them his fifth-largest contributor. In their first-quarter performance report, KKR & Co. described serious concerns over a failure to raise the debt ceiling.

“[Failure to raise the debt ceiling] could also limit our ability and the ability of our funds and portfolio companies to obtain financing, and it could have a material adverse effect on the valuation of our portfolio companies and other assets held by our funds,” their statement read. “Under such circumstances, the risks we face and any resulting adverse effects on our business, financial condition and results of operations would be significantly exacerbated.”

The money's on the GOP folding.  The crazy is on them letting a default destroy the country.  I don't honestly know which one will win.

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