Monday, February 28, 2011

What's Next In Libya

No matter what happens in Libya, odds are extremely good that the situation there will deteriorate very quickly from civil war into humanitarian nightmare.

Rebel-held eastern Libya will start to experience serious food and medical shortages within three weeks, a public health volunteer said on Monday.


East Libya has fallen to protesters against leader Colonel Muammar Gaddafi, who is clinging to power in the face of mounting protests in Tripoli in the west of the country.

The unrest is disrupting imports, the local supply of fresh food and domestic manufacturing, people in Libya's second city of Benghazi say, with many shops and factories there still closed since the city fell to protesters a week ago.

"We will have serious shortages of food, drink, medicine and medical equipment in two weeks, three weeks maximum. We need outside help," said Khalifa el-Faituri, a volunteer with qualifications in public health and pharmacology.

It's already bad enough that thousands have been killed, but many more could die before Libya's conflict is resolved.  Meanwhile, the instability continues to spread.   Imagine what a supply disruption like this could do to people in the desert Middle East.

There is a growing sense of unease in Benghazi over food supplies, and some people complained of not being able to find bread and other goods.

"I'm struggling to find basics for my family. Bread, vegetables. Prices have gone up by 75 percent," said restaurant waiter Ayman Ahmed, 50.

It was the same story outside the city.

"Since the uprising there's been no sugar, no pasta, no rice, no fruit. We've got enough to keep us going for a week, but God knows after that," said shopkeeper Naji Othman, in the village of Sultan. His shelves were poorly stocked with mainly packet and tinned food, the fresh produce corner empty.

Things will get worse before they get better.  International aid organizations need to be ready to react now.

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