Forecast For Trouble

Nate Silver celebrates his new digs over at the NY Times with his Senate Forecast, and the numbers aren't good for the Dems.

The Democratic majority is in increasing jeopardy in the Senate, according to the latest FiveThirtyEight forecasting model. The Democrats now have an approximately 20 percent chance of losing 10 or more seats in the Senate, according to the model, which would cost them control of the chamber unless Gov. Charlie Crist of Florida, who is running for the Senate as an independent, both wins his race and decides to caucus with them.

In addition, there is an 11 percent chance that Democrats will lose a total of nine seats, which would leave them with 50 votes, making  them vulnerable to a defection to the Republican Party by a centrist like  Joseph I. Lieberman of Connecticut or Ben Nelson of Nebraska. On average, over the model’s 100,000 simulation runs, the Democrats are projected to lose a net of six and a half Senate seats, which would leave them with  52 or  53 senators. (Even though the G.O.P. primary in Alaska remains too close to call, that outcome is unlikely to alter the model.)

Even worse for the Dems, there's about a 12% chance of a 51-49 split which with Lieberman, Ben Nelson, and Charlie Crist in the mix could give the GOP control as well.  By my math, there's a 43% chance of real trouble for the Democrats in the Senate under Nate's model.

Not good at all...or is it?

That still leaves a much better 53% chance the Dems will solidly control the Senate and if you take Ben Nelson out of the equation as a 100% Dem, 65%.

I'd take two out of three odds on the Dems keeping the Senate, frankly.  So would the Dems.